Unfortunately, the OBR announced that unemployment is predicted to rise to 5.3% this year with younger workers feeling the brunt of the impact.
From a business perspective, employers are preparing for the rise in the National Living Wage increase (that was announced in the Autumn Budget) is due to take effect from April 2026. The hourly rate for staff aged 21 and over will rise to £12.71 (for someone working full-time (37.5 hours), that equates to £24,784.50 a year8).
Businesses are also dealing with new employment legislation like the Employment Rights Act and frozen tax thresholds are also adding to the pressures that businesses are facing. As tax bands aren’t rising with inflation, more employees are falling into the higher tax brackets even though their actual pay has only risen slightly. This effect, known as fiscal drag, increases the pressure on employers to offer higher wages in order to keep pace with the cost of living, while also juggling higher associated employment costs such as National Insurance contributions.
This creates a ripple effect as employees’ disposable income reduces, meaning they are less likely to spend money at yours and other’s businesses.